Green Finance, Green Technology Innovation and the Upgrading of China’s Industrial Structure: A Study from the Perspective of Heterogeneous Environmental Regulation

In the era of green economic development, green finance serves as a crucial catalyst for green technological innovation, and both may significantly drive the upgrading of industrial structures. This study combines green finance, green technological innovation, and industrial structure into a research framework, analyzing data from 29 Chinese provinces (2003–2020) to empirically assess their impacts on China’s industrial structure using a two-way fixed-effects model. The results show the following: first, green finance and green technological innovation can significantly promote the upgrading of China’s industrial structure directly and synergistically, a finding corroborated by various robustness tests. Secondly, heterogeneity analysis reveals that there is a “path-dependency effect” in the development of green finance and technology innovation: in areas with higher population density, more developed technological markets, and lower fiscal pressure, the synergistic promotion of the upgrading of industrial structure is stronger. Thirdly, further research indicates that green finance and technology innovation impact the upgrading of industrial structure variably under command-and-control, market-incentive, and voluntary environmental-regulation tools. The most effective policy is the voluntary regulation tool, which involves higher levels of public participation. This study offers valuable insights for fostering green technology innovation, refining environmental policies, and enhancing the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.