Drinking, Driving, and Crashing: A Traffic-Flow Model of Alcohol-Related Motor Vehicle Accidents*

毒物控制 人口 伤害预防 运输工程 醉酒司机 撞车 人为因素与人体工程学 环境卫生 地理 工程类 医学 酒后驾驶 计算机科学 程序设计语言
作者
Paul J. Gruenewald,Fred W. Johnson
出处
期刊:Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs [Alcohol Research Documentation]
卷期号:71 (2): 237-248 被引量:28
标识
DOI:10.15288/jsad.2010.71.237
摘要

This study examined the influence of on-premise alcohol-outlet densities and of drinking-driver densities on rates of alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes. A traffic-flow model is developed to represent geographic relationships between residential locations of drinking drivers, alcohol outlets, and alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes.Cross-sectional and time-series cross-sectional spatial analyses were performed using data collected from 144 geographic units over 4 years. Data were obtained from archival and survey sources in six communities. Archival data were obtained within community areas and measured activities of either the resident population or persons visiting these communities. These data included local and highway traffic flow, locations of alcohol outlets, population density, network density of the local roadway system, and single-vehicle nighttime (SVN) crashes. Telephone-survey data obtained from residents of the communities were used to estimate the size of the resident drinking and driving population.Cross-sectional analyses showed that effects relating on-premise densities to alcohol-related crashes were moderated by highway trafficflow. Depending on levels of highway traffic flow, 10% greater densities were related to 0% to 150% greater rates of SVN crashes. Time-series cross-sectional analyses showed that changes in the population pool of drinking drivers and on-premise densities interacted to increase SVN crash rates.A simple traffic-flow model can assess the effects of on-premise alcohol-outlet densities and of drinking-driver densities as they vary across communities to produce alcohol-related crashes. Analyses based on these models can usefully guide policy decisions on the sitting of on-premise alcohol outlets.

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