Predicting the risk of axillary lymph node metastasis in early breast cancer patients based on ultrasonographic-clinicopathologic features and the use of nomograms: a prospective single-center observational study

The purpose of this study was to establish two preoperative nomograms to evaluate the risk for axillary lymph node (ALN) metastasis in early breast cancer patients based on ultrasonographic-clinicopathologic features.We prospectively evaluated 593 consecutive female participants who were diagnosed with cT1-3N0-1M0 breast cancer between March 2018 and May 2019 at Sun Yat-Sen Memorial Hospital. The participants were randomly classified into training and validation sets in a 4:1 ratio for the development and validation of the nomograms, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of ALN status. We developed Nomogram A and Nomogram B to predict ALN metastasis (presence vs. absence) and the number of metastatic ALNs (≤ 2 vs. > 2), respectively.A total of 528 participants were evaluated in the final analyses. Multivariable analysis revealed that the number of suspicious lymph nodes, long axis, short-to-long axis ratio, cortical thickness, tumor location, and histological grade were independent predictors of ALN status. The AUCs of nomogram A in the training and validation groups were 0.83 and 0.78, respectively. The AUCs of nomogram B in the training and validation groups were 0.87 and 0.87, respectively. Both nomograms were well-calibrated.We developed two preoperative nomograms that can be used to predict ALN metastasis (presence vs. absence) and the number of metastatic ALNs (≤ 2 vs. > 2) in early breast cancer patients. Both nomograms are useful tools that will help clinicians predict the risk of ALN metastasis and facilitate therapy decision-making about axillary surgery.• We developed two preoperative nomograms to predict axillary lymph node status based on ultrasonographic-clinicopathologic features. • Nomogram A was used to predict axillary lymph node metastasis (presence vs. absence). The AUCs in the training and validation groups were 0.83 and 0.78, respectively. Nomogram B was used to estimate the number of metastatic lymph nodes ( ≤ 2 vs. > 2). The AUCs in the training and validation group were 0.87 and 0.87, respectively. • Our nomograms may help clinicians weigh the risks and benefits of axillary surgery more appropriately.