Radiomics parameters of epicardial adipose tissue predict mortality in acute pulmonary embolism

Abstract Background Accurate prediction of short-term mortality in acute pulmonary embolism (APE) is very important. The aim of the present study was to analyze the prognostic role of radiomics values of epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) in APE. Methods Overall, 508 patients were included into the study, 209 female (42.1%), mean age, 64.7 ± 14.8 years. 4.6%and 12.4% died (7- and 30-day mortality, respectively). For external validation, a cohort of 186 patients was further analysed. 20.2% and 27.7% died (7- and 30-day mortality, respectively). CTPA was performed at admission for every patient before any previous treatment on multi-slice CT scanners. A trained radiologist, blinded to patient outcomes, semiautomatically segmented the EAT on a dedicated workstation using ImageJ software. Extraction of radiomic features was applied using the pyradiomics library. After correction for correlation among features and feature cleansing by random forest and feature ranking, we implemented feature signatures using 247 features of each patient. In total, 26 feature combinations with different feature class combinations were identified. Patients were randomly assigned to a training and a validation cohort with a ratio of 7:3. We characterized two models (30-day and 7-day mortality). The models incorporate a combination of 13 features of seven different image feature classes. Findings We fitted the characterized models to a validation cohort ( n = 169) in order to test accuracy of our models. We observed an AUC of 0.776 (CI 0.671–0.881) and an AUC of 0.724 (CI 0.628–0.820) for the prediction of 30-day mortality and 7-day mortality, respectively. The overall percentage of correct prediction in this regard was 88% and 79% in the validation cohorts. Lastly, the AUC in an independent external validation cohort was 0.721 (CI 0.633–0.808) and 0.750 (CI 0.657–0.842), respectively. Interpretation Radiomics parameters of EAT are strongly associated with mortality in patients with APE. Clinical trial number Not applicable.