Estimating global geographical distribution and ecological niche dynamics of Ammannia coccinea under climate change based on Biomod2

Invasive alien plants are a major threat to biodiversity and the agricultural economy. The invasive weed (Ammannia coccinea) can compete with rice in paddy fields, posing a potential threat to rice production. Despite the crucial importance of estimating the global geographical distribution and ecological niche dynamics of A. coccinea in order to implement effective early warning and control strategies and to ensure global agro-rice security, there has been a dearth of relevant research. This study employed biomod2 ensemble model based on environmental and species data to analyze the distribution range shift and ecological niche dynamics of A. coccinea under the current and future climate scenarios. The results showed that the potential suitability area of A. coccinea was mainly located in Southern North America, northern and south-eastern South America, south-western Europe, the Middle East, central Africa, western Asia, south-eastern Asia, with a gradual increase in the mid-high suitability habitat areas with time and radiation levels. Under future climate change scenarios, the centroid of the suitable area of A. coccinea may shift northwards to higher latitudes. The ecological niche of A. coccinea has shifted less and the overall ecological niche has maintained stability under different climate scenarios in the future compared to the current period. Temperature, precipitation, and the human impact index were the primary factors influencing the future distribution of A. coccinea. In conclusion, climate change was contributing to the expansion of A. coccinea's high habitability area and shifts its ecological niche, necessitating the implementation of effective transnational management strategies to mitigate the impact of this invasive species on rice production.