Evaluating the coordinated development of social economy, water, and ecology in a heavily disturbed basin based on the distributed hydrology model and the harmony theory

The coordination of social economy, water, and ecology is an important foundation for sustainable development. However, the interaction among social economy, water, and ecology are complex. The data scales between socioeconomic factors (normally at the spatial scale of the administrative region and the temporal scale of a year or month) and river water quality and ecological factors (normally at the spatial scale of a sub-basin and the temporal scale of an instantaneous value) do not match. Therefore, many current regulation methods do not sufficiently consider the interaction mechanisms between socioeconomic, water, and ecological factors or cannot adequately deal with the scale of the data. In this study, we proposed a new framework to assess the coordinated development of social economy, water, and ecology (SWE) by integrating the distributed social economy-water-ecological model (SEWE) and the harmonious regulation model. We built the SEWE model by coupling a rainfall-runoff model, river water quality, and ecological models; we built the harmonious regulation model based on the harmony theory method. We applied the proposed method and framework to the Shaying River Basin, which exhibited typical characteristics of multiple sluices and dams, high pollution, and significant human activities. Results indicated that the coordinated development level of the SWE in the Shaying River Basin was poor, with the average coordination degree varying from 0.39 to 0.60. The average growth rate of the coordination degree of socioeconomic indicators was greater than that of the river water quality and ecological indicators. The coordination degree of water ecological indicators was small with a decreasing trend. These results indicated the increasing impact of socioeconomic development on river water quality and ecology. Therefore, the Shaying River Basin should focus on ecological and environmental restoration, such as the effective control of pollution draining into rivers. The proposed methods and framework could contribute to the integrated water resource management of the basin.