医学
瓣膜性心脏病
逻辑回归
队列
抗磷脂综合征
内科学
心脏病学
多元分析
血栓形成
作者
Haoyu Pan,Zetao Ding,Zhi‐Xia Yang,Zihan Tang,Lei Li,Jialin Teng,Yue Sun,Honglei Liu,Xiaobing Cheng,Yutong Su,Junna Ye,Qiongyi Hu,Huihui Chi,Zhuochao Zhou,Jianfen Meng,Binshen Ouyang,Yunpeng Zhu,Haoyi Yao,Jian Li,Tingting Liu
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.clim.2023.109790
摘要
Valvular heart disease (VHD) is a prevalent cardiac manifestation in antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) patients. However, risk factors and predictors for antiphospholipid antibody-associated VHD (aPL-VHD) remain vague. We aimed to assess the risk of developing aPL-VHD in aPL-positive patients, by establishing a clinical prediction model upon a cross-sectional cohort from APS-Shanghai database, including 383 APS patients and durable aPL carriers with transthoracic echocardiography investigation. The prevalence of aPL-VHD was 11.5%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified three independent risk factors for aPL-VHD: anti-β2GPI IgG (OR 5.970, P < 0.001), arterial thrombosis (OR 2.758, P = 0.007), and stratified estimated glomerular filtration rate levels (OR 0.534, P = 0.001). A prediction model for aPL-VHD, incorporating the three factors, was further developed, which demonstrated good discrimination with a C-index of 0.855 and 0.841 (after bootstrapping), and excellent calibration (P = 0.790). We provide a practical tool for assessing the risk of developing VHD among aPL-positive patients.
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