Effects of temperature and PM2.5 on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth in a heavily polluted area, Shijiazhuang, China

手足口病 口蹄疫 滞后 污染物 分布滞后 相对湿度 广义加性模型 湿度 空气污染物 风速 空气温度 环境科学 毒理 脚(韵律) 医学 空气污染 环境卫生 气象学 疾病 生态学 生物 地理 数学 统计 计算机网络 语言学 哲学 病理 病毒学 爆发 计算机科学
作者
Ran Liu,Jianning Cai,Weiheng Guo,Wei Guo,Wenjuan Wang,Lina Yan,Ning Ma,Xiaolin Zhang,Shiyong Zhang
出处
期刊:Environmental Science and Pollution Research [Springer Science+Business Media]
卷期号:29 (8): 11801-11814 被引量:11
标识
DOI:10.1007/s11356-021-16397-7
摘要

The influence of weather and air pollution factors on hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has received widespread attention. However, most of the existing studies came from lightly polluted areas and the results were inconsistent. There was a lack of relevant evidence of heavily polluted areas. This study aims to quantify the relationship between weather factors and air pollution with HFMD in heavily polluted areas. We collected the daily number of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Shijiazhuang, China from 2014 to 2018, as well as meteorological and air pollutant data over the same period. The generalized linear model combined with the distributed lag model was used to study the effect of meteorological factors and air pollutants on the daily cases of HFMD and its hysteresis effect. We found that the dose-response relationship between temperature, PM2.5, and the risk of hand-foot-mouth disease was non-linear. Both low temperature and high temperature increased the risk of hand-foot-mouth disease. The cumulative effect of high temperature reached the maximum at 0-10 lag days, and the cumulative effect of low temperature reached the maximum at 0-3 lag days. The concentration of PM2.5 between 76 and 200 μg/m3 has a certain risk of the onset of hand, foot, and mouth disease, but the extreme PM2.5 concentration has a certain protective effect. In addition, low humidity, low wind speed, and low-O3 can increase the risk of HFMD. Risks of humidity and low concentration of O3 increased as lag days extended. In conclusion, our study found that climate factors and air pollutants exert varying degrees of impact on HFMD. Our research provided the scientific basis for establishing an early warning system so that medical staff and parents can take corresponding measures to prevent HFMD.
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