Development of a risk score to predict occurrence of deep sternal dehiscence requiring operative debridement

Objective Severe deep sternal wound (DSW) complications after cardiac surgery are a source of cost, morbidity, and mortality. Our objective was to develop and validate a clinical risk score for predicting risk of DSW requiring operative bone debridement, the most severe form of sternal dehiscence. Methods A retrospective review was conducted of patients who underwent open cardiac surgery at a single institution between October 2007 and March 2019. Primary outcome was DSW requiring sternal bone debridement. Potential risk factors were screened using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and significant covariates were included in a logistic regression prediction model. Interval validation was performed using 10-fold cross-validation. A novel sternal wound dehiscence risk score was derived from the relative parameterization estimates. Results One hundred thirty-four of 8403 patients (1.6%) were identified as having a DSW. Female sex (odds ratio [OR], 2.75; 95% CI, 2.58-2.93), body mass index (OR, 1.0946; 95% CI, 1.09-1.09), percent glycated hemoglobin (OR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.28-1.33), peripheral vascular disease (OR, 2.38; 95% CI, 2.2005-2.5752), smoking (OR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.53-1.79) and elevated creatinine level (OR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.18-1.22) were independent predictors of DSW. Patients were categorized as minimal risk (0%-1%), low risk (2%-3%), intermediate risk (4%-7%), and high risk (9%-64.0%) on the basis of risk score. Conclusions This risk stratification model for DSW requiring operative debridement might provide individualized estimates of risk, and guide counseling and potential risk mitigation strategies.