Predicting vigilance vulnerability during 1 and 2 weeks of sleep restriction with baseline performance metrics

We attempted to predict vigilance performance in adolescents during partial sleep deprivation using task summary metrics and drift diffusion modelling measures (DDM) derived from baseline vigilance performance.In the Need for Sleep studies, 57 adolescents (age = 15-19 years) underwent two baseline nights of 9-h time-in-bed (TIB), followed by two cycles of weekday sleep-restricted nights (5-h or 6.5-h TIB) and weekend recovery nights (9-h TIB). Vigilance was assessed daily with the Psychomotor Vigilance Task (PVT), with the number of lapses (response times ≥ 500 ms) as the primary outcome measure. The two DDM predictors were drift rate, which quantifies the speed of information accumulation and determines how quickly an individual derives a decision response, and non-decision time range, which indicates within-subject variation in physical, non-cognitive responding, e.g. motor actions.In the first week of sleep curtailment, faster accumulation of lapses was significantly associated with more lapses at baseline (p = .02), but not the two baseline DDM metrics: drift and non-decision time range (p > .07). On the other hand, faster accumulation of lapses and greater increment in reaction time variability from the first to the second week of sleep restriction were associated with lower drift (p < .007) at baseline.Among adolescents, baseline PVT lapses can predict inter-individual differences in vigilance vulnerability during 1 week of sleep restriction on weekdays, while drift more consistently predicts vulnerability during more weeks of sleep curtailment.Effects of Napping in Sleep-Restricted Adolescents, clinicaltrials.gov, NCT02838095. The Cognitive and Metabolic Effects of Sleep Restriction in Adolescents (NFS4), clinicaltrials.gov, NCT03333512.