Decision-Making with Predictions of Others' Likely and Unlikely Choices in the Human Brain

For better decisions in social interactions, humans often must understand the thinking of others and predict their actions. Since such predictions are uncertain, multiple predictions may be necessary for better decision-making. However, the neural processes and computations underlying such social decision-making remain unclear. We investigated this issue by developing a behavioral paradigm and performing functional magnetic resonance imaging and computational modeling. In our task, female and male participants were required to predict others’ choices in order to make their own value-based decisions, as the outcome depended on others’ choices. Results showed, to make choices, the participants mostly relied on a value difference (primary) generated from the case where others would make a likely choice, but sometimes they additionally used another value difference (secondary) from the opposite case where others make an unlikely choice. We found that the activations in the posterior cingulate cortex (PCC) correlated with the primary difference while the activations in the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (rdlPFC) correlated with the secondary difference. Analysis of neural coupling and temporal dynamics suggested a three-step processing network, beginning with the left amygdala signals for predictions of others’ choices. Modulated by these signals, the PCC and rdlPFC reflect the respective value differences for self-decisions. Finally, the medial prefrontal cortex integrated these decision signals for a final decision. Our findings elucidate the neural process of constructing value-based decisions by predicting others and illuminate their key variables with social modulations, providing insight into the differential functional roles of these brain regions in this process.