Can renewable energy development facilitate China's sustainable energy transition? Perspective from Energy Trilemma

A comprehensive assessment of energy systems and the roadmap for a sustainable energy transition is becoming more and more important themes in academic research to mitigate climate risk. This study establishes an evaluation system for the level of energy trilemma (ET) at the provincial level in China and analyzes the impact and mechanism of renewable energy development on ET. The results show that (1) the national ET index shows an upward trend, and the energy system has been continuously optimized, albeit with spatial disparities across provinces. (2) Renewable energy development positively impacts ET, and the positive impacts of hydropower generation are significant. (3) The results of the mechanism analysis indicate that renewable energy development can indirectly promote sustainable energy transition by improving technological innovation and green productivity. (4) Under inter-provincial electricity transfer, the impact of renewable energy on optimizing the ET in net electricity exporting regions is less significant compared to that in net electricity importing regions. Therefore, it is crucial to focus on the synergistic development of energy security, energy equity, and environmental sustainability, especially by supporting net electricity exporting regions, to promote a more balanced and sustainable development of the energy system.