Land-based urbanization in China: Mismatched land development in the post-financial crisis era

Mismatched land development symbolizes the situation where large-scale urban expansion mismatches actual social and economic demand, and are a widespread problem for developing countries experiencing rapid land expansion. In this study, a conceptual framework is developed to identify cities with mismatched land development and applied to solicit those out of 615 Chinese cities in 2008–2017 – a decade after the global financial crisis (GFC). The results indicate that, although the urban expansion impacted economic recovery after the GFC in the short term, the lack of actual demand from the population and industries caused the mismatched land development in the long term, with the most mismatched cities clustered in the northeast and northwest regions in China. In the post-GFC era, the increasing financial dependence of local governments on urban land profits accelerated the mismatched land development, particularly for county-level cities, which indicates the land-based urbanization pattern needs to be changed. Policy suggestions are provided for mitigating mismatched urban land development and promoting sustainable urbanization.