差异(会计)
计量经济学
系列(地层学)
对数
转化(遗传学)
航程(航空)
时间序列
统计
计算机科学
经济
数学
工程类
生物
基因
会计
数学分析
生物化学
航空航天工程
古生物学
化学
作者
Helmut Lütkepohl,Fang Xu
出处
期刊:Empirical Economics
[Springer Science+Business Media]
日期:2010-12-27
卷期号:42 (3): 619-638
被引量:173
标识
DOI:10.1007/s00181-010-0440-1
摘要
For forecasting and economic analysis many variables are used in logarithms (logs). In time series analysis, this transformation is often considered to stabilize the variance of a series. We investigate under which conditions taking logs is beneficial for forecasting. Forecasts based on the original series are compared to forecasts based on logs. For a range of economic variables, substantial forecasting improvements from taking logs are found if the log transformation actually stabilizes the variance of the underlying series. Using logs can be damaging for the forecast precision if a stable variance is not achieved.
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