Circulating Tumor DNA Dynamics as Prognostic Markers in Locally Advanced and Metastatic Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Importance Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is a deadly disease with frequent recurrence. There are unmet needs for prognostic biomarkers for dynamically monitoring disease progression and detecting minimal residual disease. Objective To examine whether circulating tumor DNA is clinically useful as a prognostic biomarker for ESCC recurrence and patient survival. Design, Setting, and Participants This single-center, population-based cohort study consecutively enrolled 147 patients receiving curative (n = 74) or palliative (n = 73) treatment at the surgery and clinical oncology departments of Queen Mary Hospital in Hong Kong from August 1, 2016, to September 31, 2021. Patients were followed up for 2 years. Plasma samples were collected at different longitudinal time points for a prospective circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) next-generation sequencing profiling study of 77 actionable genes. Intervention Patients were treated with up-front surgery, neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy plus surgery with or without adjuvant therapy, or palliative chemotherapy (CT). Main Outcomes and Measures Detection of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS). Results A total of 478 serial plasma samples from 147 patients with locoregional or metastatic ESCC were prospectively analyzed. Among the 74 patients in the curative group (median [range] age, 66 [46-85] years; 56 [76.0%] male), 44 (59.5%) relapsed and 36 (48.6%) died. For patients receiving curative surgical treatment, a high ctDNA level (hazard ratio [HR], 7.84; 95% CI, 1.87-32.97; P = .005) and ctDNA alterations (HR, 5.71; 95% CI, 1.81-17.97; P = .003) at 6 months postoperation were independently associated with poor OS. Among patients receiving neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, postneoadjuvant ctDNA alterations were associated with poor PFS (HR, 3.16; 95% CI, 1.17-8.52; P = .02). In the 73 patients in the palliative group (median [range] age, 63 [45-82] years; 63 [86.0%] male), 71 (97.3%) had disease relapse and 68 (93.2%) died. Detectable pre-CT NFE2L2 alterations were independently associated with PFS (HR, 2.99; 95% CI, 1.35-6.61; P = .007) and OS (HR, 28.39; 95% CI, 7.26-111.03; P = 1.52 × 10 −6 ), whereas high ctDNA levels (HR, 2.41; 95% CI, 1.18-4.95; P = .02) and alterations in pre–cycle III ctDNA (HR, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.03-3.85; P = .04) showed weaker associations with PFS. Alterations in pre-CT ctDNA were independently associated with OS (HR, 4.46; 95% CI, 1.86-10.69; P = 7.97 × 10 −4 ). Conclusions and Relevance The findings of this cohort study indicate that prognostic models incorporating ctDNA features are useful in ESCC. Both ctDNA level and NFE2L2 alterations pre-CT and before cycle III were found to be important prognostic factors in palliative groups, and ctDNA alterations after treatment and at 6 months after surgery may define high-risk groups for recurrence in the curative group. High-risk patients can benefit by a timely switch to the next therapeutic options.