Evolution and prediction of drought-flood abrupt alternation events in Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin, China

Drought-flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) as a compound natural disaster can cause severe socioeconomic loss and environmental destruction. Under climate change, the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin has experienced evident increases in temperature and variability of precipitation. However, the study of the evolution characteristics of DFAA in the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin is limited and the risk of exposure to DFAA events under future climatic conditions should be comprehensively assessed. In this study, the DFAA events including drought to flood (DTF) and flood to drought (FTD) events in the Yellow River Basin (YRB), Huai River Basin (HuRB), and Hai River Basin (HaRB) are identified by the long-cycle drought-flood abrupt alternation index (LDFAI) and the temporal variation and spatial distribution of the number and intensity of DFAA events from 1961 to 2020 are examined. The 24 climate model simulations of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are used to evaluate the variation of DFAA events based on the bias-corrected method. The results show that both DTF and FTD events occurred >10 times in most areas of the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin from 1961 to 2020, and severe DFAA events occurred more frequently in the HaRB. The occurrence of DTF events decreased and FTD events continuously increased in the YRB, while they showed opposite trends in the HuRB and HaRB. In the future, the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin is projected to experience more DTF events under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, while more FTD events under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Most areas in the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin are projected to be at medium or high risk of the frequency and intensity of DFAA events under different future scenarios, especially in the central part of the YRB. These findings can provide scientific reference to the formulation of management policies and mitigation strategies.