Predictive Ppk calculations for biologics and vaccines using a Bayesian approach – a tutorial

Abstract In pharmaceutical manufacturing, especially biologics and vaccines manufacturing, emphasis on speedy process development can lead to inadequate process development, which often results in less robust commercial manufacturing process after launch. Process performance index (Ppk) is a statistical measurement of the ability of a process to produce output within specification limits over a period of time. In biopharmaceutical manufacturing, progression in process development is based on Critical Quality Attributes meeting their specification limits, lacking insight into the process robustness. Ppk is typically estimated after 15–30 commercial batches at which point it may be too late/too complex to make process adjustments to enhance robustness. The use of Bayesian statistics, prior knowledge, and input from Subject matter experts (SMEs) offers an opportunity to make predictions on process capability during the development cycle. Developing a standard methodology to assess long term process capability at various stages of development provides several benefits: provides opportunity for early insight into process vulnerabilities thereby enabling resolution pre‐licensure; identifies area of the process to prioritize and focus on during process development/process characterization (PC) using a data‐driven approach; and ultimately results in higher process robustness/process knowledge at launch. We propose a Bayesian‐based method to predict the performance of a manufacturing process at full manufacturing scale during the development and commercialization phase, before commercial data exists. Under Bayesian framework, limited development data for the process of interest at hand, data from similar products, general SME knowledge, and literature can be carefully formulated into informative priors. The implementation of the proposed approach is presented through two examples. To allow for continuous improvement during process development, we recommend to embed this approach of using predictive Ppk at pre‐defined commercialization stage‐gates, for example, at completion of process development, prior to and completion of PC, prior to technology transfer runs (Engineering/Process Performance Qualification, PPQ), and prior to commercial specification setting.