Cellular automata based framework for evaluating mitigation strategies of sponge city

Abstract Urban surface water flooding is increasing because of climate change and urbanization, and brings great challenges to urban sustainable development. It is, therefore, most important to develop urban flood management approaches to alleviate the consequences of floods. China is implementing a “sponge city” initiative to tackle urban surface water flooding and improve urban water management. There is, however, limited cost-effectiveness evaluation to support the choice of economically efficient mitigation strategies. To address this gap, this study developed an evaluation framework based on cellular automata and cost–benefit analysis to assess the performance of mitigation strategies in sponge city construction. This approach is demonstrated with a case study of Siergou (Dalian, China), which has a total area of 10.1 km2. The mitigation measures of green roofs, permeable pavements and bio-retention were used to generate mitigation scenarios. A two-dimensional cellular automata-based model was used to simulate urban surface water flooding. The results obtained from the case study indicate that the framework can achieve cost-effective mitigation strategies for sponge city construction, which can support robust decision making. The distribution of mitigation strategies has great impacts on the effectiveness of alleviating urban flood risk. This study provides new insight into the development of cost-effective mitigation strategies for sponge city construction.