气候变化
生态学
物种分布
濒危物种
栖息地
航程(航空)
仰角(弹道)
代表性浓度途径
环境生态位模型
地理
降水
自然地理学
环境科学
气候模式
生物
气象学
材料科学
几何学
生态位
复合材料
数学
作者
Mohamed Abdelaal,Mauro Fois,Giuseppe Fenu,Gianluigi Bacchetta
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.ecoinf.2019.01.003
摘要
Climate change poses negative impacts on plant species, particularly for those of restricted ecology and distribution range. Rosa arabica Crép., an exclusive endemic species to Saint Catherine Protectorate in Egypt, has severely declined and become critically endangered in the last years. In this paper, we applied the maximum-entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) to predict the current and future potential distribution of this species in order to provide a basis for its protection and conservation. In total, 32 field-based occurrence points and 22 environmental variables (19 bioclimatic and three topographic) were used to model the potential distribution area under current and two future representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. Annual temperature, annual precipitation and elevation were the key factors for the distribution of R. arabica. The response curves showed that this species prefers habitats with an annual temperature of 8.05–15.4 °C, annual precipitation of 36 to 120 mm and elevation range of 1571 to 2273 m a.s.l. Most of the potential current suitable conditions were located at the middle northern region of Saint Catherine. Prediction models under two future climate change scenarios displayed habitat range shifts through the disappearance of R. arabica in sites below 1500 m a.s.l., an altitudinal range contraction at 1500–2000 m and possible expansions towards higher elevation sites (2000–2500 m a.s.l.). Our findings can be used to define the high priority areas for reintroduction or for protection against the expected climate change impacts and future modifications.
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