In response to recent European Union (EU) regulations on packaging waste, the packaging industry requires greater fundamental understanding of the machine-material interactions that take place during packaging operations. Such an understanding is necessary to handle thinner lighter-weight materials, specify the material properties required for successful processing and design right-first-time machinery. The folding carton industry, in particular, has been affected by the new legislation and needs to realize the potential of computational tools for simulating the behaviour of packaging materials and generating the necessary understanding. This paper describes the creation and validation of a detailed finite element model of a carton during a common packaging operation. The model is applied here to address the problem of carton buckling. The carton was modelled using a linear elastic material definition with non-linear crease behaviour. Air inrush suction, which is believed to cause buckling, was quantified experimentally and incorporated using contact damping interactions. The results of the simulation are validated against high-speed video of carton production. The model successfully predicts the pattern of deformation of the carton during buckling and its increasing magnitude with production rate. The model can be applied to study the effects of variation in material properties, pack properties and machine settings. Such studies will improve responsiveness to change and will ultimately allow end-users to use thinner, lighter-weight materials in accordance with the EU regulations.