Impacts of climate change and host plant availability on the potential distribution of Bradysia odoriphaga (Diptera: Sciaridae) in China

Abstract BACKGROUND Chinese chives ( Allium tuberosum Rottler ex Sprengel) are favored by consumers because of its delicious taste and unique fragrance. Bradysia odoriphaga (Diptera: Sciaridae) is a main pest that severely harms Chinese chives and other Liliaceae's production. Climate change may change the future distribution of B. odoriphaga in China. In this study, the CLIMEX was employed to project the potential distribution of B. odoriphaga in China, based on China's historical climate data (1987–2016) and forecast climate data (2021–2100). RESULTS Bradysia odoriphaga distributed mainly between 19.8° N–48.3° N and 74.8° E–134.3° E, accounting for 73.25% of the total mainland area of China under historical climate conditions. Among them, the favorable and highly favorable habitats accounted for 30.64% of the total potential distribution. Under future climate conditions, B. odoriphaga will be distributed mainly between 19.8° N–49.3° N and 73.8° E–134.3° E, accounting for 84.89% of China's total mainland area. Among them, the favorable and highly favorable habitats will account for 35.23% of the total potential distribution, indicating an increase in the degree of fitness. Areas with relatively appropriate temperature and humidity will be more suitable for the survival of B. odoriphaga . Temperature was a more important determinant of the climatic suitability of the pest B. odoriphaga than humidity. Host plants (Liliaceae) availability also had impact on climate suitability in some regions. CONCLUSIONS These projected potential distributions will provide supportive information for monitoring and early forecasting of pest outbreaks, and to reduce future economic and ecological losses. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.