Policy-Induced Fertility Suppression and Marital Satisfaction: Evidence From a Natural Experiment in China

Abstract Having children is widely regarded as one of the most important benefits and purposes of marriage, particularly in societies that uphold traditional family values. Consequently, the suppression of fertility could have far-reaching implications for marital life that transcend childbearing itself. Previous studies have examined the impact of health-induced fertility suppression, but a gap remains in understanding how policy-induced fertility restrictions affect marital satisfaction. This study employs a nationally representative sample to examine whether Chinese couples’ marital satisfaction improves when the potential marital utility on fertility is enhanced following the transition from the one-child to the universal two-child policy in China. Using a difference-in-differences design, the study finds that men who desire multiple children experience increased marital satisfaction after the policy change. Conversely, the same is not observed for women. Our study provides compelling evidence that the increase in marital satisfaction for husbands is driven by the improved evaluation of the marital fertility value rather than other unintended policy effects. Further, the policy-induced satisfaction improvement is more pronounced among men with more severely constrained or deeply ingrained fertility desires. The article discusses the broad impact of fertility policy on family life, the gender-imbalanced perception of this policy shift, and its theoretical and policy implications.