How Does the Three‐North Shelterbelt Engineering of China Improve Its Habitat Quality? A Study of 40 Years of Change Tracking and Driving Factors

ABSTRACT The Three‐North Shelterbelt Engineering of China (TNSEC) is a large‐scale ecological restoration project that was initiated in 1978 to enhance the ecological environment of the Three‐North Shelterbelt Engineering Region (TNSER). However, the macro long‐term data and driving mechanisms behind habitat quality in the TNSER remain inadequately understood. Therefore, multi‐source observational data, the InVEST model, and spatial analysis techniques were employed to quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of habitat quality in the TNSER since 1980. Additionally, the Optimal Parameters‐based Geographical Detector (OPGD) model was utilized to quantitatively elucidate the driving mechanisms behind changes in habitat quality. The habitat quality of TNSER has remained stable from 1980 to 2020, exhibiting significant spatial agglomeration characteristics. Areas with higher habitat quality are demonstrating a trend of expansion, while regions with poor habitat quality are experiencing fragmentation and expansion. It is anticipated that the habitat quality of TNSER will continue to remain stable in the future; however, areas with poor habitat quality and their adjacent zones are showing signs of deterioration. Changes in habitat quality within TNSER are influenced by multiple factors, primarily socio‐economic factors in nature, with GDP accounting for 55% of the variations in habitat quality. This study offers valuable recommendations for policymakers from a sustainable development perspective, highlighting the critical role of large‐scale ecological projects in enhancing environmental quality amidst ongoing ecological challenges.