Predicting Progression of Intracranial Hemorrhage in the Prehospital TXA for TBI Trial

Progression of intracranial hemorrhage is a common, potentially devastating complication after moderate/severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). Clinicians have few tools to predict which patients with traumatic intracranial hemorrhage on their initial head computed tomography (hCT) scan will progress. The objective of this investigation was to identify clinical, imaging, and/or protein biomarkers associated with progression of intracranial hemorrhage (PICH) after moderate/severe TBI and to create an accurate predictive model of PICH based on clinical features available at presentation. We analyzed a subset of subjects from the phase II double-blind, multi-center, randomized "Prehospital Tranexamic Acid Use for TBI" trial. This subset was limited to the placebo arm of the parent trial with evidence of hemorrhage on the initial hCT and a follow-up hCT 6 h after. PICH was defined as an increase in hemorrhage size by 30% or more, or the development of new hemorrhage in the intra- and extra-axial intracranial vault between the initial and the follow-up hCT. Two independent radiologists evaluated each hCT, and conflicts were adjudicated by a third. Clinical and radiographic characteristics were collected, along with plasma protein biomarkers at admission. Principal component analysis (PCA) was performed, and each principal component (PC) was interrogated for its association with PICH. Finally, expert opinion and recursive feature extraction (RFE) were used to select input features for the construction of several supervised classification models. Their ability to predict PICH was quantified and compared. In this subset of subjects (