Variations of Whole–Adria Microplate Motion During the Interseismic Phase Preceding the MW 6.3, 6 April 2009 L’Aquila (Italy) Earthquake

Abstract Tectonic plate motions feed the earthquake cycle—a process whereby stress along crustal faults slowly increases over decade– or century–long periods, to then suddenly drop during earthquakes. Steadiness of plate motions during such cycles has long been a central tenet in models of earthquake genesis and of faults seismic potential, and can be tested against measurements of contemporary plate motions available from Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Here we present analyses of GNSS data from Central and Northern Italy that illuminate the motion of the Adria microplate over a period of 6 years preceding the M W 6.3, 6 April 2009 L’Aquila (Italy) earthquake. We show that the motion of the whole Adria microplate changed before the 2009 earthquake, and slowed down by around 20%. We demonstrate with quantitative models that the torque required upon Adria in order to drive such a kinematic change is consistent with what is imparted to Adria by temporal stress variations occurring during the late interseismic phase of the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake cycle. The inference that plate motions can be influenced by, and thus sensitive to, earthquake cycles offers an additional perspective to assessing the seismic potential of tectonic margins.