Describing a complex primary health care population to support future decision support initiatives

IntroductionDeveloping decision support tools using data from a health care organization, to support care within that organization, is a promising paradigm to improve care delivery and population health. Descriptive epidemiology may be a valuable supplement to stakeholder input towards selection of potential initiatives and to inform methodological decisions throughout tool development. We additionally propose that to properly characterize complex populations in large-scale descriptive studies, both simple statistical and machine learning techniques can be useful. ObjectiveTo describe sociodemographic, clinical, and health care use characteristics of primary care clients served by the Alliance for Healthier Communities, which provides team-based primary health care through Community Health Centres (CHCs) across Ontario, Canada. MethodsWe used electronic health record data from adult ongoing primary care clients served by CHCs in 2009-2019. We performed traditional table-based summaries for each characteristic; and applied three unsupervised learning techniques to explore patterns of common condition co-occurrence, care provider teams, and care frequency. ResultsThere were 221,047 eligible clients. Sociodemographics: We described 13 characteristics, stratified by CHC type and client multimorbidity status. Clinical characteristics: Eleven-year prevalence of 24 investigated conditions ranged from 1% (Hepatitis C) to 63% (chronic musculoskeletal problem) with non-uniform risk across the care history; multimorbidity was common (81%) with variable co-occurrence patterns. Health care use characteristics: Most care was provided by physician and nursing providers, with heterogeneous combinations of other provider types. A subset of clients had many issues addressed within single-visits and there was within- and between-client variability in care frequency. In addition to substantive findings, we discuss methodological considerations for future decision support initiatives. ConclusionsWe demonstrated the use of methods from statistics and machine learning, applied with an epidemiological lens, to provide an overview of a complex primary care population and lay a foundation for stakeholder engagement and decision support tool development.