Human papillomavirus genotyping for predicting disease progression in women with biopsy-negative or cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 1 of low-grade intraepithelial lesion cytology

Our study used human papillomavirus (HPV) genotyping to assess the disease occurrence probability in women with a low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL) without histologically confirmed cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse (CIN2+).This study investigated CIN2+ incidence in 1986 women from January 2005 to August 2016, including 1123 with LSIL who were histology-proven negative and 863 with LSIL who were histology-proven CIN1. Baseline high-risk HPV (HR-HPV) status was determined using the hybrid capture II assay (HC2), and HR-HPV genotype was determined using the HPV DNA chip test (HDC).Among 1986 women, the HC2 yielded positive results in 1529 (77.0%), while the HDC identified 1624 (81.8%). Thus, the overall HDC and HC2 agreement was 93.2%. Overall, 169 (8.5%) patients developed CIN2+. The 5-year cumulative CIN2+ incidence rates for HPV-16, HPV-18, HPV-31, and HPV-33 were 11.8%, 9.9%, 16.3%, and 16.1%, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that HPV-16 (HR 1.637, 95% CI 1.064 to 2.520, p=0.025), HPV-31 (HR 1.845, 95% CI 1.051 to 3.238, p=0.033), and HPV-33 (HR 2.272, 95% CI 1.235 to 4.183, p=0.008) were significantly associated with CIN2+ development.Among women with LSIL, those who test positive for HPV-16, HPV-31, or HPV-33 may require more rigorous follow-up because of a higher CIN2+ risk.