Between Threat, Alliance, and Multivectorism: Kazakh-Russian Relations in the Wake of the Russo-Ukrainian War

The January Russian-led, Collective Security Treaty Organization intervention in Kazakhstan on behalf of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev raised important questions about whether the government in Astana was indebted to Moscow and how much geopolitical leverage the latter could and would exercise over the former. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine the following month put Russia-Kazakhstan ties to the test as Kazakhstan has been forced to maneuver through a difficult situation which includes an irredentist threat on its border, a formal alliance with this source of threat, and its official multivector foreign policy. This chapter examines how Kazakhstan has had remarkable success at carefully balancing its deep-rooted ties to Russia with its goal of maintaining both its foreign policy autonomy and positive relations with the West. It also shows how Kazakhstan has taken concrete steps to demonstrate its rejection of Moscow’s war aims and to secure its territorial integrity and sovereignty against any potential Russian threat. The conclusion considers what the future might hold for Kazakhstan in light of a dynamic international environment.