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Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

疾病 疾病负担 公共卫生 疾病负担 全球卫生 投资(军事) 医学 风险分析(工程) 环境卫生 精算学 业务 政治学 护理部 病理 政治 法学
作者
Dan J. Stein,Hazim Ababneh,Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate,Cristiana Abbafati,Rouzbeh Abbasgholizadeh,Mohammadreza Abbasian,Hedayat Abbastabar,Abdallah H A Abd Al Magied,Samar Abd ElHafeez,Atef Abdelkader,Michael Abdelmasseh,Sherief Abd‐Elsalam,Parsa Abdi,Mohammad Abdollahi,Meriem Abdoun,Auwal Abdullahi,Mesfin Abebe,Olumide Abiodun,Richard Gyan Aboagye,Hassan Abolhassani,Mohamed Abouzid,Girma Beressa Aboye,Lucas Guimarães Abreu,Abdorrahim Absalan,Hasan Abualruz,Bilyaminu Abubakar,Hana Abukhadijah,Giovanni Addolorato,Victor Adekanmbi,Charles Oluwaseun Adetunji,Juliana Bunmi Adetunji,Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa,Rishan Adha,Ripon Kumar Adhikary,Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani,Leticia Akua Adzigbli,Fatemeh Afrashteh,Muhammad U. Afzal,Saira Afzal,Faith Agbozo,Antonella Agodi,Anurag Agrawal,Williams Agyemang‐Duah,Bright Opoku Ahinkorah,Austin J Ahlstrom,Aqeel Ahmad,Firdos Ahmad,Muayyad Ahmad,Sajjad Ahmad,Shahzaib Ahmad,Anisuddin Ahmed,Ayman Ahmed,Haroon Ahmed,Safoora Ahmed,Syed Anees Ahmed,Karolina Akinosoglou,Mohammed Ahmed Akkaif,Ashley Akrami,Ema Akter,Salah Al Awaidy,Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan,Amjad S Al Mosa,Omar Al Ta’ani,Omar Ali Mohammed Al Zaabi,Fares Alahdab,Muaaz Alajlani,Yazan A. Al‐Ajlouni,Samer O. Alalalmeh,Ziyad Al‐Aly,Khurshid Alam,Noore Alam,Shazia Alam,Zufishan Alam,Rasmieh Al‐Amer,Fahad Alanezi,Turki Alanzi,Almaza A. Albakri,Wafa Ali Aldhaleei,Robert W Aldridge,Seyedeh Yasaman Alemohammad,Megbaru Alemu,Adel Al‐Gheethi,Mohammed Khaled Al‐Hanawi,Abid Ali,Amjad Ali,I. Hadj Ali,Mohammed Usman Ali,Rafat Ali,Syed Shujait Ali,Victor Ekoche Ali,Waad Ali,Akram Al‐Ibraheem,Gianfranco Alicandro,Sheikh Mohammad Alif,Syed Mohamed Aljunid,François Alla,Joseph Uy Almazan,Hesham M. Al‐Mekhlafi,Ahmed Yaseen Alqutaibi,Ahmad Alrawashdeh,Sahel Majed Alrousan,Salman Khalifah Al-Sabah,Mohammed Alsabri,Zaid Altaany,Ala’a B. Al‐Tammemi,Jaffar A. Al‐Tawfiq,Khalid A Altirkawi,Deborah Oyine Aluh,Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán,Mohammad Alwardat,Yaser Mohammed Al‐Worafi,Hany Aly,Mohammad S. Alyahya,Karem H. Alzoubi,Walid Al-Zyoud,Reza Amani,Edward Kwabena Ameyaw,Tarek Tawfik Amin,Alireza Amindarolzarbi,Sohrab Amiri,Mohammad Hosein Amirzade-Iranaq,Hubert Amu,Dickson A Amugsi,Robert Ancuceanu,Deanna Anderlini,David Anderson,Pedro Prata Andrade,Cătălina Liliana Andrei,Tudorel Andrei,Erick Adrian Andrews,Abhishek Anil,Sneha Anil,Amir Anoushiravani,Catherine M Antony,Ernoiz Antriyandarti,Boluwatife Stephen Anuoluwa,Saeid Anvari,Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor,Francis Appiah,M. Aquilano,Juan Pablo Arab,Jalal Arabloo,Elshaimaa A Arafa,Mosab Arafat,Aleksandr Y. Aravkin,Ali M. Ardekani,Demelash Areda,Brhane Berhe,Abdulfatai Aremu,Hany Ariffin,Mesay Arkew,Keivan Armani,Anton A Artamonov,Ashokan Arumugam,Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi,Charlie Ashbaugh,Thomas Astell‐Burt,Seyyed Shamsadin Athari,Prince Atorkey,Maha Atout,Avinash Aujayeb,Marcel Ausloos,Hamzeh Awad,Adedapo Wasiu Awotidebe,Haleh Ayatollahi,José Luís Ayuso‐Mateos,Sina Azadnajafabad,Fahad Khan Azeez,Rui Azevedo,Muhammad Badar,Soroush Baghdadi,Mahboube Bagheri,Nasser Bagheri,Ruhai Bai,Jennifer L. Baker,Abdulaziz T Bako,Senthilkumar Balakrishnan,Wondu Feyisa Balcha,Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu,Martina Barchitta,Erfan Bardideh,Suzanne Barker‐Collo,Till Bärnighausen,Hiba Jawdat Barqawi,Sandra Barteit,Afisu Basiru,João Diogo Basso,Mohammad-Mahdi Bastan,Sanjay Basu,Matteo Bauckneht,Bernhard T. Baune,Mohsen Bayati,Nebiyou Simegnew Bayileyegn,Amir Hossein Behnoush,Payam Behzadi,Maryam Beiranvand,Olorunjuwon Omolaja Bello,Luı́s Belo,Apostolos Beloukas,Maryam Bemanalizadeh,Isabela M. Benseñor,Habib Benzian,Azizullah Beran,Zombor Berezvai,Robert S. Bernstein,Paulo Bettencourt,Kebede Beyene,M Beyene,Devidas S. Bhagat,Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula,Neeraj Bhala,Dinesh Bhandari,Ravi Bharadwaj,Nikha Bhardwaj,Pankaj Bhardwaj,Ashish Bhargava,Sonu Bhaskar,Vivek Bhat,Natalia V. Bhattacharjee,Gurjit Kaur Bhatti,Jasvinder Singh Bhatti,Manpreet S. Bhatti,Mohiuddin Ahmed Bhuiyan,Catherine Bisignano,Bijit Biswas,Tone Bjørge,Virgínia Bodolica,Aadam Olalekan Bodunrin,Milad Bonakdar Hashemi,Berrak Bora Başara,Hamed Borhany,Samuel Adolf Bosoka,Alejandro Botero Carvajal,Souad Bouaoud,Soufiane Boufous,C. S. Boxe,Edward J. Boyko,Oliver J. Brady,Dejana Braithwaite,Michael Bräuer,Javier Brazo‐Sayavera,Hermann Brenner,Colin Brown,Annie J. Browne,Traolach Brugha,Dana Bryazka,Norma B. Bulamu,Danilo Buonsenso,Katrin Burkart,Richard A. Burns,Reinhard Busse,Yasser Bustanji,Zahid A Butt,Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos,KM Shivakumar,Daniela Călina,Luciana Aparecida Campos,Shujin Cao,Angelo Capodici,Rosario Cárdenas,Giulia Carreras,Andrea Carugno,Márcia Carvalho,João Maurício Castaldelli-Maia,Giulio Castelpietra,Maria Sofia Cattaruzza,Arthur Caye,Luca Cegolon,Francieli Cembranel,Edina Cenko,Ester Cerin,Steven J. Chadban,Joshua Chadwick,Chiranjib Chakraborty,Sandip Chakraborty,Julian Chalek,Jeffrey Shi Kai Chan,Rama Mohan Chandika,Sara Chandy,Jaykaran Charan,Anis Ahmad Chaudhary,Akhilanand Chaurasia,An‐Tian Chen,Haowei Chen,Mengxuan Chen,Simiao Chen,Nicolas Cherbuin,Gerald Chi,Fatemeh Chichagi,Odgerel Chimed‐Ochir,Ritesh Chimoriya,Patrick R Ching,Jesús Lorenzo Chirinos-Cáceres,Abdulaal Chitheer,Daniel Cho,William C. Cho,Dong‐Woo Choi,Bryan Chong,Chean Lin Chong,Hitesh Chopra,Dinh‐Toi Chu,Eric Lim Teik Chung,Muhammad Chutiyami,Justin T Clayton,Rebecca M Cogen,Aaron J. Cohen,Alyssa Columbus,Haley Comfort,João Conde,Jon T Connolly,E. Cooper,Samuele Cortese,Natália Martins,Alanna Gomes da Silva,Omid Dadras,Xiaochen Dai,Zhaoli Dai,Bronte Dalton,Giovanni Damiani,Lalit Dandona,Rakhi Dandona,Jai K Das,Saswati Das,Subasish Das,Nihar Ranjan Dash,Kairat Davletov,Fernando de la Hoz,Diego De Leo,Shayom Debopadhaya,Iván Delgado‐Enciso,Edgar Denova‐Gutiérrez,Nikolaos Dervenis,Hardik Dineshbhai Desai,Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan,Syed Masudur Rahman Dewan,Kuldeep Dhama,Amol S. Dhane,Sameer Dhingra,Diana Dias da Silva,Daniel Díaz,Luis Antonio Díaz,Michael J. Diaz,Adriana Dima,Delaney D Ding,Thao Huynh Phuong,Camila Bruneli do Prado,Masoud Dodangeh,Milad Dodangeh,Phidelia Theresa Doegah,Sushil Dohare,Wanyue Dong,Mario D’Oria,Rajkumar Doshi,Robert Kokou Dowou,Haneil Larson Dsouza,Viola Savy Dsouza,John Dube,Samuel Carvalho Dumith,Bruce Bartholow Duncan,André Rodrigues Durães,Senbagam Duraisamy,Oyewole Christopher Durojaiye,Anar Dushpanova,Sulagna Dutta,Paulina Agnieszka Dzianach,Arkadiusz Dziedzic,Ejemai Eboreime,Alireza Ebrahimi,Mohammad Ebrahimi Kalan,Hisham Atan Edinur,Ferry Efendi,Terje A. Eikemo,Ebrahim Eini,Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo,Rabie Adel El Arab,Iman El Sayed,Osman Elamin,Noha Mousaad Elemam,Ghada Metwally Tawfik ElGohary,Muhammed Elhadi,Omar El Meligy,Adel B. Elmoselhi,Mohammed Elshaer,Ibrahim Elsohaby,Mohd. Elmagzoub Eltahir,Theophilus I. Emeto,Babak Eshrati,Majid Eslami,Zahra Esmaeili,Natalia Fabin,Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe,Omotayo Francis Fagbule,Luca Falzone,Mohammad Fareed,Carla Sofia Farinha,MoezAlIslam E. Faris,André Faro,Kiana Fasihi,Ali Fatehizadeh,Nelsensius Klau Fauk,Timur Fazylov,Valery L. Feigin,Ginenus Fekadu,Xiaoqi Feng,Seyed‐Mohammad Fereshtehnejad,Pietro Ferrara,Nuno Ferreira,Belete Sewasew Firew,Florian Fischer,Ida Fitriana,Joanne Flavel,Luísa Sório Flor,Morẹ́nikẹ́ Oluwátóyìn Foláyan,Kristen Foley,Marco Fonzo,Lisa M. Force,Matteo Foschi,Alberto Freitas,Ni Kadek Yuni Fridayani,Kai Fukutaki,João M. Furtado,Blima Fux,Péter Gaál,Muktar A. Gadanya,Silvano Gallus,Balasankar Ganesan,Mohammad Arfat Ganiyani,Rupesh K. Gautam,Tilaye Gebru,Miglas W Gebregergis,Mesfin Gebrehiwot,Lemma Getacher,Genanew Kassie Getahun,Peter W. Gething,Delaram J. Ghadimi,Fataneh Ghadirian,Sadegh Ghafarian,Khalid Y. Ghailan,Mohammad‐Reza Ghasemi,Ghazal Ghasempour Dabaghi,Ramy Mohamed Ghazy,Sama Ghoba,Ehsan Gholami,Ali Gholamrezanezhad,Nasim Gholizadeh,Mahsa Ghorbani,Pooyan Ghorbani Vajargah,Elena Ghotbi,Artyom Gil,Tiffany K. Gill,Alem Girmay,James Glasbey,Ekaterina Vladimirovna Glushkova,E. V. Gnedovskaya,László Göbölös,Mohamad Goldust,Pouya Goleij,Davide Golinelli,Sameer Vali Gopalani,Alessandra C. Goulart,Mahdi Gouravani,Anmol Goyal,Michal Grivna,Giuseppe Grosso,Giovanni Guarducci,Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari,Stefano Guicciardi,Rafael Alves Guimarães,Snigdha Gulati,David Gulisashvili,Damitha Asanga Gunawardane,Cui Guo,Anish Kumar Gupta,Rahul Gupta,Rajeev Gupta,Renu Gupta,Sapna Gupta,Vijai Kumar Gupta,Annie Haakenstad,Najah R Hadi,Nils Haep,Abdul Hafiz,Dariush Haghmorad,Demewoz Haile,Adel Hajj Ali,Ali Hajj Ali,Arvin Haj‐Mirzaian,Esam S Halboub,Sebastian Haller,Rabih Halwani,Irfan Ullah,Nadia Μ. Hamdy,Rifat Hamoudi,Nasrin Hanifi,Graeme J. Hankey,Zaim Haq,Md Rabiul Haque,Harapan Harapan,Arief Hargono,Josep María Haro,Ahmed I Hasaballah,S M Mahmudul Hasan,Mohammad Hasanian,Md Saquib Hasnain,Amr Hassan,Johannes Haubold,Simon I Hay,Jeffrey J. Hébert,Omar E Hegazi,Mohammad Heidari,Mehdi Hemmati,Claire A Henson,Brenda Yuliana Herrera-Serna,Claudiu Herţeliu,Majid Heydari,Kamal Hezam,Irma Hidayana,Yuta Hiraike,Nguyen Quoc Hoan,Ramesh Holla,Praveen Hoogar,Nobuyuki Horita,Md Mahbub Hossain,Hassan Hosseinzadeh,Mehdi Hosseinzadeh,Mihaela Hostiuc,Sorin Hostiuc,Chengxi Hu,Junjie Huang,Michael Hultström,Tsegaye Gebreyes Hundie,Aliza J Hunt,Kiavash Hushmandi,Javid Hussain,M. Azhar Hussain,Nawfal R Hussein,Hong-Han Huynh,Bing‐Fang Hwang,Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye,Pulwasha M Iftikhar,Adalia I Ikiroma,Paul Chukwudi Ikwegbue,Irena Ilić,Milena Ilić,Mustapha Immurana,Mustafa Alhaji Isa,Md. Rabiul Islam,Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam,Faisal Ismail,Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail,Gaetano Isola,Masao Iwagami,Ihoghosa Iyamu,Louis Jacob,Kathryn H. Jacobsen,Morteza Jafarinia,Kasra Jahankhani,Nader Jahanmehr,Nityanand Jain,Ammar Abdulrahman Jairoun,D.R. Mani,Safayet Jamil,Roland Dominic G. Jamora,Abubakar Ibrahim Jatau,Sabzali Javadov,Tahereh Javaheri,Shubha Jayaram,Sun Ha Jee,Jayakumar Jeganathan,Heng Bo Jiang,Mohammad Jokar,Jost B. Jonas,Nitin Joseph,Charity Ehimwenma Joshua,Mikk Jürisson,K Vaishali,Ali Kabir,Zubair Kabir,Vidya Kadashetti,Laleh R. Kalankesh,Sanjay Kalra,Ashwin Kamath,Rajesh Kamath,Arun Kamireddy,Mona Kanaan,Tanuj Kanchan,Edmund Wedam Kanmiki,Kehinde Kazeem Kanmodi,Sushil Kumar Kansal,Asima Karim,Samad Karkhah,Faizan Kashoo,Hengameh Kasraei,Molly B Kassel,Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi,Joonas H. Kauppila,Harkiran Kaur,Gbenga A Kayode,Foad Kazemi,Sina Kazemian,Fassikaw Kebede,Evie Kendal,Emmanuelle Kesse‐Guyot,Shahram Khademvatan,Himanshu Khajuria,Amirmohammad Khalaji,Asaad Khalid,Nauman Khalid,Alireza Khalilian,Faham Khamesipour,Fayaz Ahmad Khan,Mohammad Jobair Khan,Moien AB Khan,Shaghayegh Khanmohammadi,Khaled Khatab,Haitham Khatatbeh,Moawiah Khatatbeh,Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib,Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani,Khalid Kheirallah,Manoj Khokhar,Moein Khormali,Zahra Khorrami,Atulya Aman Khosla,Majid Khosravi‎,Mahmood Khosrowjerdi,Jagdish Khubchandani,Zemene Demelash Kifle,Grace Kim,Julie Sojin Kim,Min Seo Kim,Young‐Eun Kim,Ruth W Kimokoti,Adnan Kısa,Sezer Kısa,Luke D. Knibbs,Ann Kristin Knudsen,Sonali Kochhar,Ali‐Asghar Kolahi,Farzad Kompani,Gerbrand Koren,Oleksii Korzh,Kewal Krishan,Varun Krishna,Vijay Krishnamoorthy,Burcu Küçük Biçer,Md Abdul Kuddus,Mohammed Kuddus,Ilari Kuitunen,Omar Kujan,Mukhtar Kulimbet,Vishnutheertha Kulkarni,G Anil Kumar,Harish Kumar,Nithin Kumar,Rakesh Kumar,Vijay Kumar,Amartya Kundu,Dian Kusuma,Frank Kyei-Arthur,Ville Kytö,Hmwe Hmwe Kyu,Carlo La Vecchia,Ben Lacey,Muhammad Awwal Ladan,Lucie Laflamme,Chandrakant Lahariya,Daphne Teck Ching Lai,Ratilal Lalloo,Tea Lallukka,Judit Lám,Qing Lan,Tuo Lan,Iván Landires,Francesco Lanfranchi,Berthold Langguth,Van Charles Lansingh,Ariane Laplante-Lévesque,Bagher Larijani,Anders Larsson,Savita Lasrado,Paolo Lauriola,Hilary R Lawlor,Huu‐Hoai Le,Long Khanh‐Dao Le,Nhi Huu Hanh Le,Thao T. Le,Trang Diep Thanh Le,Janet L Leasher,Doo Woong Lee,Munjae Lee,Paul H. Lee,Sang-woong Lee,Seung Won Lee,Shaun Wen Huey Lee,Yo Han Lee,James Leigh,Elvynna Leong,Ming‐Chieh Li,Massimo Libra,Virendra S Ligade,Lee‐Ling Lim,Stephen S Lim,Liknaw Workie Limenh,Daniel Lindholm,Paulina A Lindstedt,Stefan Listl,Gang Liu,Fei Liu,Shuke Liu,Xiaofeng Liu,Xue‐Feng Liu,Erand Llanaj,Rubén López‐Bueno,José Francisco López‐Gil,Arianna Maever Loreche,Paulo A. Lotufo,Rafael Lozano,Jailos Lubinda,Giancarlo Lucchetti,Lisha Luo,Jay B. Lusk,Lei Lv,Hawraz Ibrahim M. Amin,Zheng Feei,Kelsey Lynn Maass,Nikolaos Machairas,Monika Machoy,Áurea Madureira-Carvalho,Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek,Azzam A. Maghazachi,D. Prasad,Mehrdad Mahalleh,Phetole Walter Mahasha,Mansour Adam Mahmoud,Elham Mahmoudi,Golnaz Mahmoudvand,Maureen Makama,Elaheh Malakan Rad,Kashish Malhotra,Ahmad Azam Malik,Déborah Carvalho Malta,Yosef Manla,Ali Mansour,Mohammad Hadi Mansouri,Pejman Mansouri,Vahid Mansouri,Marjan Mansourian,Mohammad Alì Mansournia,Bishnu P. Marasini,Hamid Reza Marateb,Joemer C Maravilla,Parham Mardi,Abdoljalal Marjani,Hamed Markazi Moghadam,Carlos Alberto Marrugo-Arnedo,Gabriel Martínez,Ramón Martínez,Francisco Rogerlândio Martins‐Melo,Miquel Martorell,Wolfgang Marx,Roy Rillera Marzo,Sahar Masoudi,Yasith Mathangasinghe,Alexander G. Mathioudakis,Medha Mathur,Navgeet Mathur,Neeta Mathur,Fernanda Penido Matozinhos,Jishanth Mattumpuram,Richard J. Maude,Andrea Maugeri,Mahsa Mayeli,Mohsen Mazidi,Antonio Mazzotti,John J. McGrath,Martin McKee,Anna Laura W McKowen,Michael A McPhail,Steven M. McPhail,Asim Mehmood,Kamran Mehrabani-Zeinabad,Sepideh Mehravar,Tesfahun Mekene Meto,Endalkachew Belayneh Melese,Max Alberto Mendez Mendez-Lopez,Walter Mendoza,Ritesh G. Menezes,George A. Mensah,Laverne G Mensah,Alexios‐Fotios A. Mentis,Sultan Ayoub Meo,Atte Meretoja,Tuomo J Meretoja,Abera Mersha,Tomislav Meštrović,Chamila Mettananda,Sachith Mettananda,Adquate Mhlanga,Laurette Mhlanga,Tomasz Miazgowski,Irmina Maria Michałek,Ana Carolina Micheletti Gomide Nogueira de Sá,Ted R. Miller,Le Huu Nhat Minh,Alireza Mirahmadi,Antonio Mirijello,Erkin М Мirrakhimov,Roya Mirzaei,Philip B. Mitchell,Chaitanya Mittal,Madeline E Moberg,Atousa Moghadam Fard,Seyedehfatemeh Mohajelin,Ashraf Mohamadkhani,Ahmed Ismail Mohamed,Jama Mohamed,Mouhand Mohamed,Nouh Saad Mohamed,Ameen Mosa Mohammad,Soheil Mohammadi,Hussen Mohammed,Mustapha Mohammed,Shafiu Mohammed,Ali H. Mokdad,Mariam Molokhia,Shaher Momani,Sara Momtazmanesh,Lorenzo Monasta,Stefania Mondello,Mohammad Ali Moni,Fateme Montazeri,AmirAli Moodi Ghalibaf,Maryam Moradi,Yousef Moradi,Paula Moraga,Lidia Morawska,Rafael Silveira Moreira,Negar Morovatdar,Shane D. Morrison,Abbas Mosapour,Jonathan F Mosser,Elías Mossialos,Rohith Motappa,Vincent Mougin,Parsa Mousavi,Matías Mrejen,Sumaira Mubarik,Ulrich Müeller,Francesk Mulita,Kavita Munjal,Efrén Murillo‐Zamora,Khaled M. Musallam,Ana-Maria Mușină,Ghulam Mustafa,Woojae Myung,Ayoub Nafei,Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan,Pirouz Naghavi,Ganesh R. Naik,Gurudatta Naik,Firzan Nainu,Soroush Najdaghi,Noureddin Nakhostin Ansari,Vinay Nangia,Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy,Shumaila Nargus,Delaram Narimani Davani,Bruno Ramos Nascimento,Gustavo G. Nascimento,Abdallah Y. Naser,Abdulqadir J. Nashwan,Zuhair S. Natto,Javaid Nauman,Samidi Navaratna,Muhammad Naveed,Nawsherwan Nawsherwan,Biswa Prakash Nayak,Vinod C Nayak,Hadush Negash,Ionuţ Negoi,Ruxandra Irina Negoi,Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi,Chakib Nejjari,Soroush Nematollahi,Henok Biresaw Netsere,Marie Ng,Georges Nguefack-Tsagué,Josephine W Ngunjiri,Hoang Anh Nguyen,Dang Nguyen,Duc Hoang Nguyen,Hau Thi Hien Nguyen,Nhan P. T. Nguyen,Nhien Ngoc Y Nguyen,Phat Tuan Nguyen,QuynhAnh P Nguyen,Van Thanh Nguyen,Nguyen Tran Minh Duc,Robina Khan Niazi,Yeshambel T. Nigatu,Mahdieh Niknam,Ali Nikoobar,Amin Reza Nikpoor,Nasrin Nikravangolsefid,Efaq Ali Noman,Shuhei Nomura,Syed Toukir Ahmed Noor,Nafise Noroozi,Mehran Nouri,Majid Nozari,Chisom Adaobi Nri-Ezedi,George Ntaios,Mengistu H Nunemo,Dieta Nurrika,Jerry John Nutor,Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam,Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam,Bogdan Oancea,Kehinde Obamiro,Ismail Ayoade Odetokun,Michael Safo Oduro,Oluwaseun Adeolu Ogundijo,Adesola A. Ogunfowokan,Abiola Ogunkoya,Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade,In‐Hwan Oh,Tolulope R Ojo-Akosile,Hassan Okati–Aliabad,Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle,Osaretin Christabel Okonji,Andrew T Olagunju,Matthew Idowu Olatubi,Gláucia Maria Moraes de Oliveira,Bolajoko O. Olusanya,Jacob Olusegun Olusanya,Yinka Doris Oluwafemi,Hany A. Omar,Goran Latif Omer,Sok King Ong,Sandersan Onie,Obinna Onwujekwe,Abdulahi Opejin Opejin,Michał Ordak,Verner N. Orish,Alberto Ortíz,Esteban Ortiz‐Prado,Wael M S Osman,Sergej M. Ostojic,Samuel M Ostroff,Uchechukwu Levi Osuagwu,Adrian Oţoiu,Stanislav S Otstavnov,Amel Ouyahia,Mayowa Owolabi,Oyetunde T. Oyeyemi,Ahmad Ozair,Mahesh Padukudru P A,Alicia Padrón‐Monedero,Jagadish Rao Padubidri,Pramod Kumar Pal,Tamás Palicz,Feng Pan,Hai‐Feng Pan,Songhomitra Panda‐Jonas,Anamika Pandey,Victoria Pando‐Robles,Helena Ullyartha Pangaribuan,Georgios D. Panos,Leonidas Panos,Ioannis Pantazopoulos,Anca Pantea Stoian,Romil Parikh,Eun‐Kee Park,Seoyeon Park,Sungchul Park,Nicholas Parsons,Ashwaghosha Parthasarathi,Maja Pasovic,Roberto Passera,Jay Patel,Aslam Pathan,Shankargouda Patil,Dimitrios Patoulias,Shrikant Pawar,Hamidreza Pazoki‐Toroudi,Spencer A Pease,Amy E. Peden,Paolo Pedersini,Umberto Pensato,Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito,Prince Peprah,Marcos Pereira,Maria Odete Pereira,Perianayagam Arokiasamy,Norberto Perico,Simone Perna,Konrad Pesudovs,Fanny Emily Petermann-Rocha,Hoang Tran Pham,Armelle Philip,Michael Phillips,Manon Pigeolet,М. А. Пирадов,Enrico Pisoni,Evgenii Plotnikov,Dimitri Poddighe,Р. В. Полибин,Ramesh Poluru,Ville Ponkilainen,Djordje S. Popovic,Maarten J. Postma,Ahmad Pour‐Rashidi,Disha Prabhu,Sergio I. Prada,Jalandhar Pradhan,Pranil Man Singh Pradhan,Akila Prashant,Elton Junio Sady Prates,Tina Priscilla,Hery Purnobasuki,Bharathi Purohit,Jagadeesh Puvvula,Nameer Hashim Qasim,Ibrahim Qattea,Asma Saleem Qazi,Gangzhen Qian,Mehrdad Rabiee Rad,Venkatraman Radhakrishnan,Hadi Raeisi Shahraki,Quinn Rafferty,Alberto Raggi,C. Raggi,Nasiru Raheem,Fakher Rahim,Md Jillur Rahim,Sarvenaz Rahimibarghani,Md Mijanur Mijanur Rahman Rahman,Mosiur Rahman,Muhammad Aziz Rahman,Tafhimur Rahman,Amir Masoud Rahmani,Mohammad Rahmanian,Nazanin Rahmanian,Rahem Rahmati,Setyaningrum Rahmawaty,Diego Raimondo,Adarsh Raja,Prashant Rajput,Majed Ramadan,Shakthi Kumaran Ramasamy,Sheena Ramazanu,Pramod W. Ramteke,Kritika Rana,Rishabh Kumar Rana,Chhabi Lal Ranabhat,Amey Rane,Chythra R Rao,Mithun Rao,Davide Rasella,Vahid Rashedi,Ahmed Mustafa Rashid,Ashkan Rasouli-Saravani,Prateek Rastogi,Azad Rasul,Devarajan Rathish,Giridhara R. Babu,Santosh Kumar Rauniyar,Ramin Ravangard,David Laith Rawaf,Salman Rawaf,Rabail Zehra Raza,Elrashdy M. Redwan,Lennart Reifels,Marissa B Reitsma,Giuseppe Remuzzi,Kannan R. R. 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出处
期刊:The Lancet [Elsevier]
卷期号:403 (10440): 2204-2256 被引量:57
标识
DOI:10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00685-8
摘要

Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.
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