Pathological complete response may underestimate distant metastasis in locally advanced rectal cancer following neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and radical surgery: Incidence, metastatic pattern, and risk factors

Aim To evaluate the pattern of tumor relapse of pathological complete response (pCR) patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) following neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) and total mesorectal excision (TME), and to identify predictive factors of distant metastasis in pCR patients after nCRT. Method This was a retrospective analysis of 118 LARC patients who achieved a pCR following nCRT and TME from 2008 to 2015. Clinicopathological and therapeutic parameters were evaluated as possible predictors of distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), and COX regression analysis was performed. Results After a median follow-up of 57 months, the 5-year overall and disease-free survival rates were 94.7% and 88.1%, respectively. Overall, 6 patients (5.1%) died, no local recurrence occurred, 13 patients (11%) developed distant metastases, including lung (n = 5), liver (n = 2), bone (n = 3), lung and brain (n = 1), peritoneal (n = 1), and spleen (n = 1) metastasis. On univariate analysis, tumor distance from the anal verge (HR = 0.706, P = 0.039), acellular mucin pools (HR = 6.687, P = 0.002), and MUC1 expression (HR = 8.280, P < 0.001) were independently associated with DMFS. COX regression demonstrated that MUC1 expression (HR = 3.812, P = 0.041) remained to be an independent predictor of DMFS in pCR patients. Conclusion Distant metastasis still remained a major concern in pCR patients following nCRT and TME. Tumor distance from the anal verge, acellular mucin pools, and MUC1 expression were associated with distant metastasis in patients with pCR. MUC1 staining remained to be an independent risk factor for DMFS. Such information could facilitate treatment decision in these patients, such as adjuvant chemotherapy and follow-up.