Potential changes in rainfall erosivity in the U.S. with climate change during the 21st century

ABSTRACT: The erosive power of rainfall can be expected to change as climate changes. Such erosive changes are likely to have significant impacts on local and national soil conservation strategies. This study uses results of climate change scenarios from two coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models to investigate the possible levels and patterns of change that might be expected over the 21st century. Results of this study suggest the potential for changes in rainfall erosivity across much of the continental United States during the coming century. The magnitude of change (positive or negative) across the country over an 80 year period averaged between 16–58%, depending upon the method used to make the predictions. Some area of the country showed increases and others showed decreases in erosivity. Spatial distributions of calculated erosivity changes indicated areas of both consistency and inconsistency between the two climate models.