Risk assessment of soil erosion in Central Asia under global warming

Soil erosion is a threat to the ecological environment and human health. Climate change is closely related to soil erosion, and the ecological environment in Central Asia is sensitive to climate change. However, there is a lack of comprehensive risk assessments of the soil erosion by wind and water in Central Asia under climate change. This study used climate model data to simulate the spatiotemporal variation of wind and water erosion in Central Asia during the current period (1996–2015) and in the future with global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C (GW1.5 °C and GW2.0 °C, respectively) compared with the pre-industrial levels. The variations of exposure of population to soil erosion in the future were assessed. The results showed that the overall wind erosion in Central Asia is decreasing, but the area in which increasing wind erosion occurs will increase (2.6% under GW1.5 °C, and 8.6% under GW2.0 °C) compared with the current period. Water erosion in Central Asia is increasing, and the area in which increasing water erosion occurs will increase by 10.2% under GW1.5 °C, and 20.3% under GW2.0 °C. The central arid desert shrub area of Central Asia is the only area where both wind and water erosion increase significantly. Wind speed and precipitation are the main factors that contribute to wind and water erosion. Higher vegetation cover helps to reduce wind and water erosion. Under global warming, more population in Central Asia will be affected by soil erosion, primarily in the upper reaches of the Amu River and the lower reaches of the Syr River. This study should provide a scientific basis for formulating the ecological development plans in Central Asia to meet the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).