Harmonic gear drive mechanism has been widely used in space mechanism, robot and other precision actuators. Based on the theory of probability and statistics, this paper establishes a mathematical model of harmonic gear transmission error considering the assembly and wear among components, and conducts sensitivity analysis and normalization of factors affecting harmonic gear transmission error model. Through Kriging model and Monte Carlo method, reliability degradation law of transmission accuracy is obtained by transmission error function and reliability analysis. Some suggestions are given in the design of harmonic gear drive in the future.