[Analysis of prognosis and influencing factors of No. 253 lymph node metastasis in descending colon, sigmoid colon, and rectal cancer: a multicenter study].

Objectives: To analyze the influencing factors of No. 253 lymph node metastasis in descending colon cancer, sigmoid colon cancer, and rectal cancer, and to investigate the prognosis of No. 253 lymph node-positive patients by propensity score matching analysis. Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on clinical data from patients with descending colon cancer, sigmoid colon cancer, rectosigmoid junction cancer, and rectal cancer who underwent surgery between January 2015 and December 2019 from the Cancer Hospital of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, General Hospital of the Chinese People's Liberation Army, and Peking University Cancer Hospital. A total of 3 016 patients were included according to inclusion and exclusion criteria, comprising 1 848 males and 1 168 females, with 1 675 patients aged≥60 years and 1 341 patients aged<60 years. Clinical and pathological factors from single center data were subjected to univariate analysis to determine influencing factors of No. 253 lymph node metastasis, using a binary Logistic regression model. Based on the results of the multivariate analysis, a nomogram was constructed. External validation was performed using data from other multicenter sources, evaluating the effectiveness through the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the calibration curve. Using data from a single center, the No. 253 lymph node-positive group was matched with the negative group in a 1∶2 ratio (caliper value=0.05). Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method and Log-rank test. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine independent prognostic factors. Results: (1) The tumor diameter≥5 cm (OR=4.496,95%CI:1.344 to 15.035, P=0.015) T stage (T4 vs. T1: OR=11.284, 95%CI:7.122 to 15.646, P<0.01), N stage (N2 vs. N0: OR=60.554, 95%CI:7.813 to 469.055, P=0.043), tumor differentiation (moderate vs. well differentiated: OR=1.044, 95%CI:1.009 to 1.203, P=0.044; poor vs. well differentiated: OR=1.013, 95%CI:1.002 to 1.081, P=0.013), tumor location (sigmoid colon vs. descending colon: OR=9.307, 95%CI:2.236 to 38.740, P=0.002), pathological type (mucinous adenocarcinoma vs. adenocarcinoma: OR=79.923, 95%CI:15.113 to 422.654, P<0.01; signet ring cell carcinoma vs. adenocarcinoma: OR=27.309, 95%CI:4.191 to 177.944, P<0.01), and positive vascular invasion (OR=3.490, 95%CI:1.033 to 11.793, P=0.044) were independent influencing factors of No. 253 lymph node metastasis. (2) The area under the curve of the nomogram prediction model was 0.912 (95%CI: 0.869 to 0.955) for the training set and 0.921 (95%CI: 0.903 to 0.937) for the external validation set. The calibration curve demonstrated good consistency between the predicted outcomes and the actual observations. (3) After propensity score matching, the No. 253 lymph node-negative group did not reach the median overall survival time, while the positive group had a median overall survival of 20 months. The 1-, 3- and 5-year overall survival rates were 83.9%, 61.3% and 51.6% in the negative group, and 63.2%, 36.8% and 15.8% in the positive group, respectively. Multivariate Cox analysis revealed that the T4 stage (HR=3.067, 95%CI: 2.357 to 3.990, P<0.01), the N2 stage (HR=1.221, 95%CI: 0.979 to 1.523, P=0.043), and No. 253 lymph node positivity (HR=2.902, 95%CI:1.987 to 4.237, P<0.01) were independent adverse prognostic factors. Conclusions: Tumor diameter ≥5 cm, T4 stage, N2 stage, tumor location in the sigmoid colon, adverse pathological type, poor differentiation, and vascular invasion are influencing factors of No. 253 lymph node metastasis. No. 253 lymph node positivity indicates a poorer prognosis. Therefore, strict dissection for No. 253 lymph node should be performed for colorectal cancer patients with these high-risk factors.目的： 探讨降结肠、乙状结肠癌及直肠癌第253组淋巴结转移的影响因素，总结第253组淋巴结阳性患者的预后。 方法： 回顾性分析2015年1月至2019年12月在中国医学科学院肿瘤医院、中日友好医院、北京协和医院、解放军总医院第一医学中心和北京大学肿瘤医院完成手术的降结肠癌、乙状结肠癌、直乙交界癌和直肠癌患者的临床资料。根据纳入和排除标准，共纳入3 016例患者，男性1 848例，女性1 168例，年龄≥60岁者1 675例，年龄<60岁者1 341例。利用中国医学科学院肿瘤医院数据，采用二元Logistic回归模型分析第253组淋巴结转移的影响因素。根据影响因素构建列线图，以其他中心数据作为外部验证集，通过受试者工作特征曲线下面积和校准曲线评价列线图有效性。利用中国医学科学院肿瘤医院数据，将第253组淋巴结阳性组与阴性组进行1∶2倾向性评分匹配，卡钳值为0.05。采用多因素 Cox比例风险模型筛选独立预后因素。生存分析采用Kaplan-Meier法和Log-rank检验。 结果： （1）肿瘤最大径≥5 cm（OR=4.496，95%CI：1.344~15.035，P=0.015）、T分期（T4期比T1期，OR=11.284，95%CI：7.122~15.646，P<0.01）、N分期（N2期比N0期，OR=60.554，95%CI：7.813~469.055，P=0.043）、肿瘤分化程度（中分化比高分化，OR=1.044，95%CI：1.009~1.203，P=0.044；低分化比高分化，OR=1.013，95%CI：1.002~1.081，P=0.013）、肿瘤位置（乙状结肠比降结肠，OR=9.307，95%CI：2.236~38.740，P=0.002）、病理学类型（黏液腺癌比腺癌，OR=79.923，95%CI：15.113~422.654，P<0.01；印戒细胞癌比腺癌，OR=27.309，95%CI：4.191~177.944，P<0.01）、脉管瘤栓阳性（OR=3.490，95%CI：1.033~11.793，P=0.044）是第253组淋巴结转移的独立影响因素。（2）列线图预测模型训练集曲线下面积为0.912（95%CI：0.869~0.955），外部验证集曲线下面积为0.921（95%CI：0.903~0.937）。校准曲线显示模型的预测结果与实际观测结果具有较好的一致性。（3）倾向性评分匹配后，阴性组未达到中位生存期，阳性组中位生存期为20个月，阴性组1、3、5年总体生存期分别为83.9%、61.3%、51.6%，阳性组分别为63.2%、36.8%、15.8%。T4期（HR=3.067，95%CI：2.357~3.990，P<0.01）、N2期（HR=1.221，95%CI：0.979~1.523，P=0.043）、第253组淋巴结阳性（HR=2.902，95%CI：1.987~4.237，P<0.01）是独立的不良预后因素。 结论： 肿瘤最大径≥5 cm、T4期、N2期、肿瘤位于乙状结肠、不良病理学类型、低分化和脉管癌栓是第253组淋巴结转移的影响因素。第253组淋巴结阳性提示预后较差，对于有上述因素的肠癌患者应严格清扫第253组淋巴结。.