Probabilistic Analysis of Pipelines in Geohazard Zones Using a Novel Approach for Strain Calculation

This paper presents an approach for probabilistic analysis of pipelines buried through geohazard-prone areas that induce permanent ground movements potentially. In this approach, an easy-to-implement response prediction tool based on the finite-difference method is integrated with simple but robust Monte Carlo simulation methods. The probability of strain capacity exceedance is calculated when a pipeline is subjected to the ground movement of different magnitudes. In the strain-based limit state function, the strain capacity is determined using existing equations in the literature, and the strain demand is calculated using an accurate and efficient tool based on the finite-difference method. After obtaining the conditional probabilities of failure of pipes at given magnitudes of ground movement, the probability of failure of pipes as a function of time is also calculated considering the probability of ground movement initiation. The proposed approach is demonstrated through a case study of pipelines subjected to landslides.