Research on the regional spatial effects of green development and environmental governance in China based on a spatial autocorrelation model

To study the regional spatial pattern of China's green development and environmental governance, this paper adopts a spatial autocorrelation model to study the spatial differentiation and agglomeration effects of environmental pollution sources in 338 prefecture-level or direct-controlled municipality administrative units in China based on the emission of environmental pollutants and socioeconomic cross-section data. Additionally, this research analyzes the spatial patterns of environmental pollution sources and emissions. On this basis, from the perspective of the environment and China's practice, a non-parametric method is used to construct a producer emissions reduction behavior model to depict three economic development models, including "extensive" development, "bottom-line" development and green development. The difference in environmental emissions and economic output between the "bottom-line" development model and the green development model is quantitatively measured to simulate the impact of the change in development mode on China's environmental economy. The results show the following: (1) There are significant regional differences in the structure of environmental pollution sources in China. Environmental pollution sources are mainly agricultural sources, urban life sources, and urban life and agricultural sources. (2) The change in development mode will reduce China's emissions level by approximately 16–22% compared with the current level. Within the sample interval, the environmental effect maintains the overall trend of a stable increase. (3) The change in development mode will have two opposite effects on China's economy, namely, a "crowding-out" effect and an innovation compensation effect. Because the innovation compensation effect brought by the change in development mode is significantly larger than the "crowding-out" effect, a win-win scenario of environmental and economic development can be achieved.