A prediction index of the volatile organic compounds pollution conditions in a chemical industrial park based on atmospheric stability

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs), as common precursors of ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), are a focus of air pollution prevention and control. Furthermore, with the rapid development of industry, industrial sources have become the largest source of anthropogenic VOCs emissions, leading to economic development while causing great harm to the environment. It is becoming meaningful to efficiently predict the future total volatile organic compounds (TVOC) pollution conditions in chemical industrial parks (CIPs), which can assist managers in carrying out corporate emission management in advance. In this study, TVOC monitoring data and meteorological data from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2022, were used to innovatively construct the TVOC pollution index. This index comprehensively considers the atmospheric stability and localized horizontal diffusion conditions and can quickly and accurately predict the variations in the TVOC in a CIP in the next 7 days. In addition, we used synoptic weather patterns and backward trajectory analysis to explore the mechanism of VOCs pollution formation in a CIP. The results show that the combined influences of a westerly wind pattern, temperatures above 30 °C, a subtropical high pressure system, more upwind pollutants, and the horizontal and vertical diffusion conditions in the CIP were unfavorable, leading to VOCs pollution.