Application and prospect of machine learning techniques in cost estimation of building projects

Purpose Machine learning (ML) technologies are increasingly being applied in building cost estimation as an advanced method to overcome the challenge of insufficient data and subjective effects of experts. To address the gap of lacking a review of ML applications in building cost estimation, this research aimed to conduct a systematic literature review to provide a robust reference and suggest development pathways for creating novel ML-based building cost prediction models, ultimately enhancing construction project management capabilities. Design/methodology/approach A systematic literature review according to preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) was adopted using quantitative bibliographic analysis and qualitative narrative synthesis based on the 70 screened publications from Web of Science (WOS) and Scopus databases. The VOSviewer software was used to prepare the thematic focus from the bibliographic data garnered. Findings Based on the results of a bibliographic analysis, current research hotspots and future trends in the application of ML to building cost estimation have been identified. Additionally, the mechanisms behind existing ML models and other key points were analyzed using narrative synthesis. Importantly, the weaknesses of current applications were highlighted and recommendations for future development were made. These recommendations included defining the availability of building attributes, increasing the application of emerging ML algorithms and models to various aspects of building cost estimation and addressing the lack of public databases. Research limitations/implications The findings are instrumental in aiding project management professionals in grasping current trends in ML for cost estimation and in promoting its adoption in real-world industries. The insights and recommendations can be utilized by researchers to refine ML-based cost estimation models, thereby enhancing construction project management. Additionally, policymakers can leverage the findings to advocate for industry standards, which will elevate technical proficiency and ensure consistency. Originality/value Compared to previous research, the findings revealed research hotspots and future trends in the application of ML cost estimation models in only building projects. Additionally, the analysis of the establishment mechanisms of existing ML models and other key points, along with the developed recommendations, were more beneficial for developing improved ML-based cost estimation models, thereby enhancing project management capabilities.