The early clinical course of primary Ta and T1 bladder cancer: a proposed prognostic index

Objective To develop a simple prognostic index for anticipating more precisely the early clinical course of primary superficial bladder cancer. Patients and methods The prognostic value of patient and tumour characteristics was examined in 333 patients with primary Ta or T1 bladder cancer who participated in a multicentre prospective study already completed. Primary tumour multiplicity, a diameter of >3 cm, stage T1, and grade 2 or 3 were independent predictors of earlier recurrence in a multivariate analysis. A simplified prognostic index consisted of the number of adverse tumour characteristics (ATCs) initially present. Results After a median follow‐up of 35.3 months, the 60 patients free of ATCs (19%) had a recurrence‐free probability at 12 and 24 months of 86% and 69%, respectively, and none experienced progression. Recurrence outcomes deteriorated consistently as the number of ATCs increased among the other three groups. In patients with 3–4 ATCs, the 12‐ and 24‐month recurrence‐free probability was as low as 30% and 19%, and recurrence and tumour rates were about 2.6 times higher than in patients free of ATCs; 7% of these patients experienced progression within 35 months of follow‐up. Conclusion A prognostic index based on the number of ATCs (primary tumour multiplicity, diameter >3 cm, stage T1, and grade 2 or 3) is a strong indicator of the clinical course of superficial bladder cancer within 3 years of the first endoscopic resection. This proposal is suggested for discussion and for validation in future studies but if confirmed, this simple prognostic index may greatly help to identify indicators for adjuvant intravesical therapy and to determine the optimal periodicity of control cystoscopy regimens.