Impact of Major Events on Interprovincial Carbon Emissions—Based on PSM-DID Analysis

The success of major events can enhance national image, boost people’s confidence, and alleviate the current “three-fold pressure”—contraction in demand, supply shocks and weak expectations. In the context of the carbon neutrality target, it is important to analyze the relationship between major events and carbon emissions as the ecological, social and economic systems become more closely related. To study the extent and persistence of the impact of major events on the carbon emissions of the hosting provinces, this paper collects annual carbon emission data from 2015 to 2019 for 30 provinces in China. The propensity score matching Difference in Difference model (PSM-DID) is used to explore the impact of major events, such as political conferences, sports events and cultural exchanges, at the national level on inter-provincial carbon emissions. The empirical study shows that (1) the carbon emissions of the provinces involved in major events significantly increase in the year when the major event is held, (2) the carbon emissions of the province significantly decrease in the year after the conclusion of the major event, and (3) the decrease is higher than the increase in carbon emissions in the year when the event is held. Finally, the model results are analyzed in the context of economic events and macroeconomic policy lags during the preparation period of the event, and policy suggestions are made to incorporate carbon neutrality into the overall layout study of ecological civilization construction, strengthening the construction of legal thinking, enhancing inter-provincial and inter-city pollution synergy control, innovating carbon-related technologies, unifying carbon emission accounting and improving data openness.