Potential impact of time trend of whole grain intake on burden of major cancers in China

Numerous studies have revealed associations between high intake of whole grains and reduced risk of various cancers. Yet, in recent decades, the traditional Chinese diets have been challenged by reduction in whole grains and increase in refined grains. To assess the impact of this dietary transition on cancer prevention, we analyzed the time trend of whole grain intake using nationally representative sampling data of over 15 thousand individuals from the China Health and Nutrition Survey. We applied the comparative risk assessment method to estimate the population attributable fraction of cancers due to insufficient whole grain intake from 1997 to 2011 and projected the trend of whole grain intake and the associated burden of cancers to 2035. We found a significant decrease of approximately 59% of whole grain intake in the Chinese population from 1997 to 2011. Compared with 1997, insufficient intake of whole grains was responsible for 9940 more cases of breast cancer, 12,903 more cases of colorectal cancer and 434 more cases of pancreatic cancer in 2011. Our projections suggest that if every Chinese would consume 125 g whole grain per day as recommended by the latest Chinese Dietary Guidelines, 0.63% bladder cancer, 8.98% breast cancer, 15.85% colorectal cancer, 3.86% esophageal cancer, 2.52% liver cancer and 2.22% pancreatic cancer (totaling 186,659 incident cases) could theoretically be averted by 2035. Even if everyone maintained the 2011 whole grain intake level, an estimated 8.38% of cancer events could still be prevented by 2035.