Explaining the rise and fall of psychological distress during the COVID‐19 crisis in the United States: Longitudinal evidence from the Understanding America Study

It has been shown that psychological distress rose rapidly as the COVID-19 pandemic emerged and then recovered to pre-crisis levels as social lockdown restrictions were eased in the United States. The aim of the current study was to investigate psychosocial and behavioural factors that may explain the rise and fall of distress during the initial months of the COVID-19 crisis.This study examined six waves of longitudinal nationally representative data from the Understanding America Study (UAS) collected between March and June 2020 (N = 7,138, observations = 34,125).Mediation analysis was used to identify whether changes in distress (PHQ-4) during the COVID-19 pandemic were explained by the following factors: perceived infection risk and risk of death, perceived financial risks, lifestyle changes resulting from the virus, perceived discrimination related to the virus, and changes in substance use and employment status.All mediating factors played a role in explaining changes in distress and together accounted for 70% of the increase in distress between 10-18 March and 1-14 April and 46.4% of the decline in distress between 1-14 April and early June 2020. Changes in perceived health risks were most important in explaining changes in distress followed by changes in lifestyle and the perceived financial risks associated with COVID-19.This study provides longitudinal population-based evidence detailing the mediating factors explaining changes in distress during the COVID-19 crisis. Perceived health risks associated with the virus may play a key role in explaining rising and falling levels of psychological distress during the COVID-19 pandemic.