Predictors of longitudinal changes in body weight, muscle and fat in patients with and ever‐smokers at risk of COPD

Weight and muscle loss are predictors of poor outcomes in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. However, to our knowledge, no study has investigated the predictors of longitudinal weight loss or its composition from functional and morphological perspectives.This longitudinal observational study with a median follow-up period of 5 years (range: 3.0-5.8 years) included patients with COPD and ever-smokers at risk of COPD. Using chest computed tomography (CT) images, airway and emphysematous lesions were assessed as the square root of the wall area of a hypothetical airway with an internal perimeter of 10 mm (√Aaw at Pi10) and the percentage of low attenuation volume (LAV%). Muscle mass was estimated using cross-sectional areas (CSAs) of the pectoralis and erector spinae muscles, and fat mass was estimated using the subcutaneous fat thickness at the level of the 8th rib measured using chest CT images. Statistical analyses were performed using the linear mixed-effects models.In total, 114 patients were enrolled. Their body mass index remained stable during the study period while body weight and muscle CSA decreased over time and the subcutaneous fat thickness increased. Reduced forced expiratory volume in 1 s and peak expiratory flow (PEF) at baseline predicted the future decline in muscle CSA.Severe airflow limitation predicted future muscle wasting in patients with COPD and ever-smokers at risk of COPD. Airflow limitation with a PEF slightly below 90% of the predicted value may require intervention to prevent future muscle loss.