Subsidies or green taxes? Evaluating the distributional effects of housing renovation policies among Dutch households

Abstract Despite persistent housing affordability issues, energy policy and housing renovation are usually investigated separately from housing costs other than energy. Researchers have examined the financial viability of renovation attending to building conditions and the socio-economic characteristics of their occupants. However, the distributional impacts of renovation incentives and the potential of fiscal policy to redistribute housing costs remain understudied. Dutch fiscal policy, favouring homeownership, offers a relevant context to evaluate how property taxation can boost renovation rates. The novelty of this paper resides in investigating the impact of two policies, the current direct subsidy and a proposal for a green tax, on both the financial viability of renovation and the subsequent distribution of housing costs. The proposed green tax combines energy efficiency and taxation of property revenue. We employ a model considering marginal costs of housing renovation, obtained from a government dataset, and marginal benefits, drawn from a hedonic regression. We assess the distributional impacts of different policy scenarios by examining changes in user costs across income deciles. Our findings indicate that existing renovation subsidies exacerbate the regressive distributional impacts resulting from the current housing taxation system in the Netherlands. Introducing energy-efficiency-linked property taxation can make homeownership fiscality less regressive while incentivising housing renovation. Ultimately, this study highlights the importance of incorporating housing affordability as a fundamental element in renovation policies to balance environmental and distributional objectives.