Risk of tuberculosis after achieving HIV virological suppression on antiretroviral therapy: a Danish nationwide prospective cohort study

Abstract Background In countries with low tuberculosis (TB) burden, the risk of TB in people with HIV (PWH) once HIV virological suppression is achieved is not fully understood. Methods In a nationwide cohort, we included all adult PWH from the Danish HIV Cohort initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) (1995-2017) without prior TB disease. We used Kaplan-Meier estimation and Poisson regression to calculate TB incidence rate (IR) after six months of ART, along with associated risk factors and mortality rates (MR). Results Among 6,849 PWH initiating ART (median follow-up 7.4 years), 84 developed TB (IR 1.4/1000 person-year [PY]), 54 of them beyond six months of ART initiation, IR 0.97/1000 PY (95%CI:1.17-1.79): 1.95 (95%CI:1.34-2.76) in non-Danish born, 0.36 (95%CI:0.21-0.62) in Danish-born without injection drug use (IDU), and 2.95 (95%CI:1.53-5.66) in Danish-born with IDU. Danish-born with suppressed viremia, and no IDU or known TB exposures had the lowest risk (IR 0.05/1000 PY). In the adjusted analysis, being non-Danish born (aIRR 4.27[95%CI:2.36-7.72]), IDU (aIRR 4.95[95%CI:2.55-9.62]), and previous AIDS-defining events (aIRR 2.05[95%CI:1.06-3.94]) raised TB risk, while suppressed HIV-RNA (aIRR 0.58[95%CI:0.34-0.99]) reduced it. The overall MR for HIV/TB co-infected post- ART was high, at 48.9/1000 PY (95%CI:30.4-78.7). Conclusions The TB risk remains elevated in PWH beyond six months of ART initiation, especially among migrants, IDU, those without suppressed HIV-RNA, and individuals exposed to high TB endemic areas or with social risk determinants of health. Conversely, PWH without these risk factors have a TB risk similar to the general population and would not require targeted TB screening strategies.