Debt maturity structure and corporate risk: an empirical study based on pandemic shock in China

We collected data on the duration of outbreaks in Chinese cities from the websites of National, Provincial, and Municipal Healthcare Commissions as our primary source. Our aim is to investigate the impact of debt maturity structure on COVID-19 shocks. We conducted statistical analyses based on different levels of debt maturity and the severity of the shocks. Subsequently, we empirically tested the mitigating effect of debt maturity structure on pandemic shocks using a fixed-effects model. Our findings reveal that pandemic shocks heighten firms' business risk. However, extending the debt maturity structure significantly alleviates the impact of these shocks. Robust benchmark results were obtained through instrumental tests employing instrumental variables, PSM-DID, and placebo methods. Mechanism tests demonstrate that extending debt maturity helps in mitigating maturity mismatches, reducing debt financing costs, and alleviating financing constraints. Further analysis indicates that the pandemic mitigating effect of debt maturity structure is more pronounced among firms with lower degrees of marketization and governance, particularly among private firms. Our study contributes to the micro-level understanding of the economic repercussions of major pandemic disasters and enriches research on firm risk from the standpoint of capital structure.