Predictors of morbidity and mortality after the first episode of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in liver cirrhosis

医学 肝硬化 肝细胞癌 肝性脑病 内科学 胃肠病学 胃肠道出血 上消化道出血 脑病 比例危险模型 死亡率 存活率 外科 内窥镜检查
作者
Juan A. del Olmo,Andrés Peña,Miguel Serra,A. Wassel,A Benages,José Rodrigo
出处
期刊:Journal of Hepatology [Elsevier]
卷期号:32 (1): 19-24 被引量:186
标识
DOI:10.1016/s0168-8278(01)68827-5
摘要

Upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding is one of the most frequent causes of morbidity and mortality in the course of liver cirrhosis. The aim of this study was to determine the independent predictors of morbidity, mortality, and survival after the first episode of GI bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis.In a retrospective study of 403 cirrhotic patients who were admitted in the period January 1982 to December 1994 because of a first episode of GI hemorrhage, epidemiological factors, bleeding-related variables and cirrhosis-related variables that may be associated with hepatic and extrahepatic complications, mortality at 48 h and 6 weeks, and survival up to 30 June 1996 were assessed.Forty-five percent of patients developed hepatic and/or extrahepatic complications, with a mortality rate of 7.4% at 48 h and 24% at 6 weeks. Renal failure, rebleeding, hepatocellular carcinoma, and hepatic encephalopathy were independent predictors of mortality. The Kaplan-Meier method showed a median survival of 30.9+/-4.5 months (95% confidence interval 22 to 39.7 months). The cumulative percentage of survivors was 60.2% at 1 year, 33.6% at 5 years, and 14% at 10 years. In a Cox's multiple regression analysis, age, hepatic encephalopathy, hepatocellular carcinoma, Child-Pugh grade, and renal failure were independently associated with long-term survival.The first episode of GI bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Renal failure, rebleeding, hepatocellular carcinoma, and hepatic encephalopathy were independent risk factors for early death.
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