Ethnic versus national identity in Ethiopia: Is ethnic identity growing and among whom?

In this article, we examine the growth of ethnopolitical divisions in Ethiopia. Using recently released Afrobarometer data and comparing current levels of ethnonational identity with previous data released in 2013, we find an erosion in support for a national Ethiopian identity, and rapidly growing ethnonational identities among Oromo and Tigrayan respondents, but not Amhara. This suggests that the attempts by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to promote 'Ethiopianess' as a unifying principle for the country will face great challenges. In addition, although it is tempting to lay the blame for this growing ethnonationalism at the 'feet' of the ethnofederal system in Ethiopia (as many scholars have) this study cannot directly address the connection between ethnic federalism and ethnic conflict and instability. However, what is clear is that there is a growing sense of ethnonationalism (or the idea that ethnic identity is now more important than a national Ethiopian identity) for a significant part of the population and this is consistent with the expectations of the critics of ethnofederalism. This also suggests greater challenges to Ethiopian unity in the near future.