Computational modeling: getting dynamic theory correct

Based on the premise that understanding the dynamics of a phenomenon is difficult, this chapter describes a support tool—the computational model—researchers and theorists can use to represent dynamic theories. Computational models facilitate thinking about the mechanisms and processes thought to be at play or described in informal, natural language theories. They also allow, via simulations, checks on that thinking, predictions of trajectories of variables over time stemming from the model, clues regarding challenging empirical tests of the model or theory from which the model is derived, and ready-made statistical models that can be fit to data. Moreover, model building has gotten much easier in recent years. A tutorial for building a simple model of an important dynamic process at work is provided that introduces readers to the software and the model building process. More detail is then provided regarding the kinds of questions one can address with computational models and the various methods available for evaluating them, including non-empirical and empirical research designs.