The management of industrial solid waste (ISW) and promoting sustainable circular development of the industrial economy is an urgent priority today. Therefore, this article constructs a sustainable circular model of ‘generation-value-technology’ of ISW management through the lens of industrial added value (IAV) and technology level. Also, the importance of the role of government is considered in the model. Based on actual data of China, this article simulates the future trend of the model using a system dynamics approach. The chief findings of the study are as follows: (1) under the current policy, China’s future industrialization is increasing and the technological level of industrial enterprises is rising, but this is accompanied by a climb in ISW generation. (2) The win–win situation of ISW decrease and IAV increase can be achieved through enhanced information disclosure, technology innovation and government incentives. (3) Government subsidy should be oriented towards supporting technology innovation in industrial enterprises while reducing the proportion of incentives for ISW management results. Based on the results, this study proposes targeted policy implications for government and industrial enterprises.